Early Warnings

Active risk signals · Updated 2026-07-14
5 STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE · 39 STRUCTURAL STRESS — 44 tokens under active surveillance
0%
1ST TARGET HIT (-30%)
0 of 44 mature alerts
0%
2ND TARGET HIT (-50%)
0 of 44 mature alerts
44
MATURE ALERTS
Issued >6 weeks ago
0
MONITORING
Recent, tracking progress
STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE
This token is breaking apart. 98% of tokens with this profile lost more than half their value. Most never came back.
In out-of-sample testing (Jan 2024 — Feb 2026), 176 tokens triggered this structural filter. Historically, 98% of flagged tokens lost more than half their value. 64% fell more than 80% — and of those, 95% never recovered. Only 1 out of 176 flagged tokens fell less than 30%. When this signal fires, history says you listen.
Recall: 113/113 deaths detected · Precision: 98% at >50% threshold · 1 false positive out of 176 warnings
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Fundamentals weakening. Two weakness signals detected. Requires monitoring.
Two of four structural weakness indicators active. In our OOS period (Jan 2024 — Feb 2026), 87% of token deaths were idiosyncratic — driven by token-specific problems, not Bitcoin. The median warning came at -31% drawdown, with a median 58 percentage points of additional loss still ahead. When a third signal activates, the token escalates to Structural Collapse.
Median warning at -31% drawdown · Median 58% additional loss avoided · 87% of deaths idiosyncratic
Four Weakness Signals
Trust Below 40
Composite trust score dropped below 40/100
Momentum Collapse
Signal-6 indicator below 2.5 threshold
DtD Below 3.0
Distance-to-Default approaching danger zone
Trust Decaying
15+ point decline over 3 months

ZARQ monitors every rated token for structural deterioration. When our Distance-to-Default model detects weakness accumulation — declining trust scores, rising volatility, liquidity withdrawal — we issue an early warning. These are not price predictions. They are structural risk assessments. Each alert tracks time-in-state and price change since first detection. As the system runs daily, the track record of each warning builds automatically.

River
RIVE · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE
Distance-to-Default
1.50
Crash Prob (90d)
34%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-73.8%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $3.2800 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Berachain Bera
BERA · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE
Distance-to-Default
2.45
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
0.7%
90d Drawdown
-57.2%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.1863 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Pippin
PIPP · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE
Distance-to-Default
2.83
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-52.9%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0163 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Power Protocol
POWE · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE
Distance-to-Default
3.28
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.9%
90d Drawdown
-26.1%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0782 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Fasttoken
FAST · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE
Distance-to-Default
3.30
Crash Prob (90d)
0%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
0.0%
90d Drawdown
-19.0%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0 Trust Improving
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0000 · 0 weeks ago · price N/A
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Build On
BUIL · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
1.00
Crash Prob (90d)
28%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
2.6%
90d Drawdown
-83.3%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.1052 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Hastra PRIME
PRIME · Rating: A2 · Score: 74/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
1.50
Crash Prob (90d)
30%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.7%
90d Drawdown
-78.4%
Rating
A2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $1.0470 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Humanity
HUMA · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
1.50
Crash Prob (90d)
30%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
2.6%
90d Drawdown
-90.5%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0677 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Zero Gravity
ZERO · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.21
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-71.8%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.1729 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Bonk
BONK · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 58/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.55
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-50.5%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0000 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Pudgy Penguins
PENGU · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 60/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.64
Crash Prob (90d)
37%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.7%
90d Drawdown
-47.5%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0058 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Midnight
NIGHT · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 61/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.65
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.6%
90d Drawdown
-53.2%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0295 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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The Sandbox
THE- · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.67
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.6%
90d Drawdown
-43.4%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0471 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Fartcoin
FART · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.74
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-45.8%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.1386 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Aptos
APT · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 61/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.76
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.5%
90d Drawdown
-47.4%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.5944 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Basic Attention Token
BASI · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.80
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.6%
90d Drawdown
-32.5%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0805 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Frax
FRAX · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.81
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.5%
90d Drawdown
-75.5%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.9892 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Jito
JTO · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 56/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.84
Crash Prob (90d)
43%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.5%
90d Drawdown
-21.7%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.6385 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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dogwifhat
WIF · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 62/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.86
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.9%
90d Drawdown
-33.4%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.1531 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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FLOKI
FLOKI · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 63/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.86
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.6%
90d Drawdown
-40.9%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0000 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Immutable X
IMMU · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.86
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.6%
90d Drawdown
-36.2%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.1287 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Story 2
STOR · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.87
Crash Prob (90d)
37%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.6%
90d Drawdown
-58.8%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.2693 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Starknet
STRK · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 59/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.88
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.6%
90d Drawdown
-48.1%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0289 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Sonic 3
SONI · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.89
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-53.2%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0253 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Render
RENDER · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 63/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.90
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.5%
90d Drawdown
-35.0%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $1.4800 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Aerodrome Finance
AERO · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 62/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.91
Crash Prob (90d)
37%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-15.1%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.4834 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Dash
DASH · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 58/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.96
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.6%
90d Drawdown
-35.6%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $32.8600 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Plasma
XPL · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 54/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.97
Crash Prob (90d)
43%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-37.6%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0894 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Provenance Blockchain
HASH · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 53/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
2.99
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-34.7%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0095 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Ribbita By Virtuals
RIBB · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.04
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-29.4%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.1129 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Kaia
KAIA · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 65/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.11
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.4%
90d Drawdown
-35.2%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0337 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Loaded Lions
LOAD · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.14
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.8%
90d Drawdown
-38.5%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0014 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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SPX6900
SPX · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 60/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.16
Crash Prob (90d)
25%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-27.0%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.3447 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Virtuals Protocol
VIRTUAL · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 62/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.16
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.7%
90d Drawdown
-43.2%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.5480 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Chain 2
CHAI · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.23
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.5%
90d Drawdown
-38.8%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0036 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Quantum Resistant Ledger
QUAN · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.27
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.7%
90d Drawdown
-41.9%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.7952 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Monero
XMR · Rating: A2 · Score: 70/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.28
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.4%
90d Drawdown
-23.8%
Rating
A2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $322.0300 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Pepe
PEPE · Rating: A3 · Score: 69/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.36
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.9%
90d Drawdown
-37.1%
Rating
A3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0000 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Axie Infinity
AXS · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 59/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.44
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.8%
90d Drawdown
-33.9%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.9776 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Optimism
OP · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 62/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.46
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.6%
90d Drawdown
-41.8%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0991 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Internet Computer
ICP · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 61/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.50
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.4%
90d Drawdown
-44.1%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $2.1800 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Zebec Network
ZBCN · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 63/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.60
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.5%
90d Drawdown
-45.4%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.0022 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Zcash
ZEC · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 62/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.61
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-25.4%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $500.6200 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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Celestia
TIA · Rating: A3 · Score: 66/100
STRUCTURAL STRESS
Distance-to-Default
3.69
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.8%
90d Drawdown
-17.1%
Rating
A3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
Alert issued 2026-07-14 · Price then: $0.4008 · 0 weeks ago · +0.0% since alert
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How Early Warnings Work
01
Distance-to-Default
Adapted from Merton's structural credit model. Measures how many standard deviations a token is from critical failure. Below 2.0 = danger zone. Below 1.0 = imminent risk.
02
Weakness Accumulation
Four structural signals tracked: trust score decay, volatility spike, DtD compression, and momentum collapse. Each confirmed weakness adds to the count. 3+ triggers CRITICAL.
03
Crash Probability
90-day forward probability combining DtD trajectory, TVL divergence, contagion exposure, and historical default patterns. Our model achieves 98% precision on historical defaults.
04
Track Record
Every warning is logged with a SHA-256 hash before market open. We track what happens after each warning is issued. No hindsight. No adjustments. Full transparency.
API Access
GET /v1/crypto/signals
Active warnings with full risk data
GET /v1/crypto/signals?level=CRITICAL
Critical only
GET /v1/crypto/signals/history?days=90
Historical signals with outcomes

Disclaimer — ZARQ provides data-driven crypto intelligence for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this website constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional advice. ZARQ does not recommend buying, selling, or holding any cryptocurrency or financial instrument.

Trust ratings, Distance-to-Default (DtD) scores, crash probabilities, trading signals, and all other data are derived from quantitative models and may contain errors, lag behind real-time conditions, or fail to predict future outcomes. Past performance, whether backtested or live, is not indicative of future results. All backtested results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading.

Crypto assets are highly volatile, speculative, and may result in total loss of invested capital. You should conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. ZARQ is not registered as a broker-dealer, investment advisor, or financial institution in any jurisdiction.

By using this website, you acknowledge that you bear sole responsibility for your own investment decisions and that ZARQ, its founders, contributors, and affiliates accept no liability for any losses, damages, or consequences arising from the use of information provided herein.