Early Warnings

Active risk signals · Updated 2026-02-28
25 CRITICAL · 47 WARNING — 72 tokens under active surveillance
CRITICAL
3+ weakness signals confirmed
In out-of-sample testing (Jan 2024 — Feb 2026), 176 tokens triggered this structural filter. Historically, 98% of flagged tokens lost more than half their value. 64% fell more than 80% — and of those, 95% never recovered. Only 1 out of 176 flagged tokens fell less than 30%. When this signal fires, history says you listen.
Recall: 113/113 deaths detected · Precision: 98% at >50% threshold · 1 false positive out of 176 warnings
WARNING
2 weakness signals confirmed
Two of four structural weakness indicators active. In our OOS period (Jan 2024 — Feb 2026), 87% of token deaths were idiosyncratic — driven by token-specific problems, not Bitcoin. The median warning came at -31% drawdown, with a median 58 percentage points of additional loss still ahead. When a third signal activates, the token escalates to CRITICAL.
Median warning at -31% drawdown · Median 58% additional loss avoided · 87% of deaths idiosyncratic
Four Weakness Signals
Trust Below 40
Composite trust score dropped below 40/100
Momentum Collapse
Signal-6 indicator below 2.5 threshold
DtD Below 3.0
Distance-to-Default approaching danger zone
Trust Decaying
15+ point decline over 3 months

ZARQ monitors every rated token for structural deterioration. When our Distance-to-Default model detects weakness accumulation — declining trust scores, rising volatility, liquidity withdrawal — we issue an early warning. These are not price predictions. They are structural risk assessments. Each alert tracks time-in-state and price change since first detection. As the system runs daily, the track record of each warning builds automatically.

Berachain Bera
BERA · Rating: Ba1 · Score: 50/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.86
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
4/4
30d Volatility
3.6%
90d Drawdown
-36.1%
Rating
Ba1
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.6096
View full profile →
Fasttoken
FAST · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 58/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
3.97
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
4/4
30d Volatility
0.0%
90d Drawdown
-24.4%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.0870
View full profile →
River
RIVE · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 55/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
1.00
Crash Prob (90d)
28%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
3.2%
90d Drawdown
-87.0%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $9.4500
View full profile →
Dash
DASH · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 57/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.35
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-59.8%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $34.2900
View full profile →
Axie Infinity
AXIE · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 57/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.37
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-53.9%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.3100
View full profile →
Zcash
ZCAS · Rating: A3 · Score: 68/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.42
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.5%
90d Drawdown
-57.3%
Rating
A3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $242.2100
View full profile →
Starknet
STAR · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 60/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.50
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-67.4%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0425
View full profile →
Telcoin
TELC · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 51/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.52
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-58.6%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0026
View full profile →
Chain 2
CHAI · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 50/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.53
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-52.3%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0049
View full profile →
Basic Attention Token
BASI · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 58/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.57
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-61.1%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1222
View full profile →
Sonic 3
SONI · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 56/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.59
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-60.9%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0407
View full profile →
Walrus 2
WALR · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 55/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.59
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-52.5%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0766
View full profile →
The Sandbox
THE- · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 59/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.62
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-47.7%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0827
View full profile →
Jito Governance Token
JITO · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 54/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.68
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.5%
90d Drawdown
-42.4%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.2885
View full profile →
Zksync
ZKSY · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 59/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.84
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.8%
90d Drawdown
-49.3%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0199
View full profile →
Kaia
KAIA · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 57/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.85
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-41.7%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0549
View full profile →
1Inch
1INC · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 59/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.88
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
0.9%
90d Drawdown
-53.8%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0919
View full profile →
Aptos
APTO · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 64/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.88
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-52.0%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.8929
View full profile →
Hastra Prime
HAST · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 52/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
2.99
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-66.4%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.0190
View full profile →
Monero
MONE · Rating: A3 · Score: 69/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
3.13
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-52.1%
Rating
A3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $338.2200
View full profile →
Helium
HELI · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 63/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
3.27
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.7%
90d Drawdown
-35.6%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.3800
View full profile →
Pippin
PIPP · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 60/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
3.53
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
3.6%
90d Drawdown
0.0%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.7633
View full profile →
Undeads Games
UNDE · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 65/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
3.59
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
0.7%
90d Drawdown
-40.5%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.7600
View full profile →
Dexe
DEXE · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 52/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
3.69
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-16.7%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $3.1900
View full profile →
Newton Project
NEWT · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 62/100
CRITICAL
Distance-to-Default
3.75
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
3/4
30d Volatility
0.4%
90d Drawdown
-59.5%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0025
View full profile →
Golem
GOLE · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 61/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
1.50
Crash Prob (90d)
34%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.9%
90d Drawdown
-58.7%
Rating
Baa1
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1499
View full profile →
Mimblewimblecoin
MIMB · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 59/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
1.50
Crash Prob (90d)
34%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-60.5%
Rating
Baa2
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $11.4900
View full profile →
Story 2
STOR · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 57/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
1.50
Crash Prob (90d)
30%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-75.1%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.0230
View full profile →
Fartcoin
FART · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 55/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.21
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-64.7%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1619
View full profile →
Optimism
OPTI · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 62/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.48
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-66.5%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1202
View full profile →
Dogwifcoin
DOGW · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 59/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.49
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-52.5%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.2039
View full profile →
Pump Fun
PUMP · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 61/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.49
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-43.3%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0018
View full profile →
Chiliz
CHIL · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 64/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.55
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-46.4%
Rating
Baa1
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0347
View full profile →
Quantum Resistant Ledger
QUAN · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 53/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.57
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.3%
90d Drawdown
-54.2%
Rating
Baa3
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.4700
View full profile →
Sui
SUI · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 64/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.58
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-51.6%
Rating
Baa1
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.9071
View full profile →
Humanity
HUMA · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 60/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.61
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
2.0%
90d Drawdown
-47.9%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1299
View full profile →
Ethena
ETHE · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 64/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.63
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-65.0%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1030
View full profile →
Eigenlayer
EIGE · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 56/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.65
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-68.4%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1958
View full profile →
Pudgy Penguins
PUDG · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 58/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.65
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-47.8%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0069
View full profile →
Pepe
PEPE · Rating: A3 · Score: 66/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.66
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-48.1%
Rating
A3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0000
View full profile →
Spx6900
SPX6 · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 53/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.68
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.6%
90d Drawdown
-57.3%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.3043
View full profile →
Havven
HAVV · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 59/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.75
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.3%
90d Drawdown
-39.9%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.3690
View full profile →
Ondo Finance
ONDO · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 62/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.76
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-49.6%
Rating
Baa1
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.2627
View full profile →
Plasma
PLAS · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 56/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.76
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-53.9%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Improving
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0904
View full profile →
Frax
FRAX · Rating: None · Score: 0/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.79
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-47.6%
Rating
None
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.9901
View full profile →
Render Token
REND · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 64/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.84
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-44.8%
Rating
Baa1
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.4400
View full profile →
Hash 2
HASH · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 53/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.86
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-48.7%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0167
View full profile →
Build On
BUIL · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 55/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.88
Crash Prob (90d)
37%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.9%
90d Drawdown
-48.9%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1240
View full profile →
Livepeer
LIVE · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 59/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.88
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.9%
90d Drawdown
-42.1%
Rating
Baa2
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $2.3500
View full profile →
Zero Gravity
ZERO · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 58/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.90
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.5%
90d Drawdown
-46.6%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Trust Improving
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.6502
View full profile →
Pendle
PEND · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 60/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.91
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-53.6%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.2900
View full profile →
The Graph
THE- · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 60/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.92
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.0%
90d Drawdown
-46.0%
Rating
Baa2
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0269
View full profile →
Elrond Erd 2
ELRO · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 63/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.93
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-46.1%
Rating
Baa1
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $4.5200
View full profile →
Jupiter Exchange Solana
JUPI · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 61/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.93
Crash Prob (90d)
33%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-39.2%
Rating
Baa1
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1517
View full profile →
Celestia
CELE · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 57/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
2.96
Crash Prob (90d)
20%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-48.9%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.3260
View full profile →
Bitcoin
BITC · Rating: A2 · Score: 75/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.03
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.8%
90d Drawdown
-31.4%
Rating
A2
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Trust Above 60 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $66094.0000
View full profile →
Safepal
SAFE · Rating: Ba1 · Score: 49/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.04
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-30.0%
Rating
Ba1
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.2599
View full profile →
Quant Network
QUAN · Rating: A2 · Score: 70/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.05
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.9%
90d Drawdown
-37.5%
Rating
A2
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $63.2700
View full profile →
Compound Governance Token
COMP · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 62/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.06
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.3%
90d Drawdown
-47.3%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $18.1800
View full profile →
Aerodrome Finance
AERO · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 61/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.07
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-49.3%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.3349
View full profile →
Cardano
CARD · Rating: A3 · Score: 69/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.15
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-39.4%
Rating
A3
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.2770
View full profile →
Virtual Protocol
VIRT · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 61/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.17
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.4%
90d Drawdown
-40.0%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.6926
View full profile →
Gatechain Token
GATE · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 64/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.20
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.7%
90d Drawdown
-32.2%
Rating
Baa1
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Trust Above 60 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $7.0800
View full profile →
Monad
MONA · Rating: Baa2 · Score: 58/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.20
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.2%
90d Drawdown
-33.9%
Rating
Baa2
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0203
View full profile →
Aster 2
ASTE · Rating: Baa1 · Score: 65/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.33
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.1%
90d Drawdown
-35.0%
Rating
Baa1
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0 Strong Momentum Trust Improving
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.7039
View full profile →
Ribbita By Virtuals
RIBB · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 54/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.35
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
2.4%
90d Drawdown
-11.3%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.1794
View full profile →
Venice Token
VENI · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 51/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.37
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
3.2%
90d Drawdown
0.0%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 DtD Below 3.0
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $4.1300
View full profile →
Polkadot
POLK · Rating: A2 · Score: 71/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.38
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
1.5%
90d Drawdown
-33.3%
Rating
A2
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $1.4400
View full profile →
Kucoin Shares
KUCO · Rating: A3 · Score: 69/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.45
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.7%
90d Drawdown
-25.7%
Rating
A3
DtD Below 3.0 Trust Decaying Trust Above 60 Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $8.6200
View full profile →
Power Protocol
POWE · Rating: Ba1 · Score: 48/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.57
Crash Prob (90d)
12%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
5.4%
90d Drawdown
0.0%
Rating
Ba1
Momentum Collapse DtD Below 3.0 Trust Improving
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.7594
View full profile →
Siren 2
SIRE · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 51/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.61
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
2.9%
90d Drawdown
0.0%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 Momentum Collapse
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.3730
View full profile →
Terra Luna
TERR · Rating: Baa3 · Score: 54/100
WARNING
Distance-to-Default
3.69
Crash Prob (90d)
18%
Weakness Score
2/4
30d Volatility
0.9%
90d Drawdown
-36.6%
Rating
Baa3
Trust Below 40 Trust Decaying Strong Momentum
First detected 2026-02-28 · Price at alert: $0.0000
View full profile →
How Early Warnings Work
01
Distance-to-Default
Adapted from Merton's structural credit model. Measures how many standard deviations a token is from critical failure. Below 2.0 = danger zone. Below 1.0 = imminent risk.
02
Weakness Accumulation
Four structural signals tracked: trust score decay, volatility spike, DtD compression, and momentum collapse. Each confirmed weakness adds to the count. 3+ triggers CRITICAL.
03
Crash Probability
90-day forward probability combining DtD trajectory, TVL divergence, contagion exposure, and historical default patterns. Our model achieves 98% precision on historical defaults.
04
Track Record
Every warning is logged with a SHA-256 hash before market open. We track what happens after each warning is issued. No hindsight. No adjustments. Full transparency.
API Access
GET /v1/crypto/signals
Active warnings with full risk data
GET /v1/crypto/signals?level=CRITICAL
Critical only
GET /v1/crypto/signals/history?days=90
Historical signals with outcomes

Disclaimer — ZARQ provides data-driven crypto intelligence for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this website constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional advice. ZARQ does not recommend buying, selling, or holding any cryptocurrency or financial instrument.

Trust ratings, Distance-to-Default (DtD) scores, crash probabilities, trading signals, and all other data are derived from quantitative models and may contain errors, lag behind real-time conditions, or fail to predict future outcomes. Past performance, whether backtested or live, is not indicative of future results. All backtested results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading.

Crypto assets are highly volatile, speculative, and may result in total loss of invested capital. You should conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. ZARQ is not registered as a broker-dealer, investment advisor, or financial institution in any jurisdiction.

By using this website, you acknowledge that you bear sole responsibility for your own investment decisions and that ZARQ, its founders, contributors, and affiliates accept no liability for any losses, damages, or consequences arising from the use of information provided herein.