Independent risk rating for Fogo (fogo). Last updated 2026-03-12.
Is Fogo safe? ZARQ rates Fogo (fogo) Ba2 with a trust score of 40.6/100 and a 33% crash probability, based on 7 quantitative risk signals. Distance-to-Default: 2.9. Alert level: WARNING. No structural weaknesses detected. Vitality Score: 28/100 (Grade D), indicating crash resistance — backtested high-Vitality tokens lost 44% less during the 2025-2026 market crash (p < 0.001). Investors searching for Fogo safety information should note this rating is updated daily.
Vitality Score Breakdown
The ZARQ Vitality Score measures ecosystem health and crash resistance across 5 dimensions. Fogo scores 28/100 (Grade D), indicating crash resistance — backtested high-Vitality tokens lost 44% less during the 2025–2026 market crash (p < 0.001). Backtested ✓ Methodology
Ecosystem Gravity30
Multi-chain presence, protocol count, DeFi depth
Capital Commitment16
TVL stability, locked capital, market cap rank
Coordination Efficiency40
Audit coverage, category diversity, yield density
Stress Resilience—
Drawdown recovery, NDD stability, crash probability
Organic Momentum39
Rating trend, NDD trend, volume momentum
Data confidence: 80%
Pillar 1 — Ecosystem Strength
47.5
Market cap rank, volume stability, activity. Higher is safer.
Pillar 2 — Contagion Risk
45.0
BTC correlation, beta exposure, idiosyncratic risk. Lower correlation = more independent.
Pillar 3 — Historical Resilience
30.0
Max drawdown recovery, annualized volatility, tail risk ratio.
Pillar 4 — Fundamental Quality
50.0
Token age, price consistency, long-term trend strength.
Pillar 5 — Rug Pull Risk
31.7
Anomaly detection, extreme move frequency, dump pattern screening.
Distance-to-Default (NDD)
2.9
Structural distance from default threshold. Below 2.0 = elevated distress.
Structural Signal (Sig6)
N/A
Structural integrity score from the DtD model. Lower values indicate structural weakness.
Fogo has an elevated crash probability of 33%, warranting extra caution. No structural weaknesses have been detected. The Distance-to-Default stands at 2.9, with an alert level of WARNING. Rating: Ba2. Vitality Score: 28/100 (Grade D).
Backtest resultsDisclaimer: This is quantitative risk analysis, not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and can lose value rapidly. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. ZARQ provides independent risk data — always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Fogo safe to invest in?
Fogo (fogo) currently holds a Ba2 rating from ZARQ with a trust score of 40.6/100. This is a speculative-grade rating, indicating elevated risk. The current crash probability is 33%, and its Distance-to-Default stands at 2.9. No structural weaknesses detected. The alert level is WARNING. As with all crypto investments, you should conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance.
What is Fogo's risk rating?
ZARQ rates Fogo at Ba2 on a Moody's-style scale (Aaa to C), where Baa3 and above is investment grade. The trust score is 40.6 out of 100, based on five quantitative pillars: ecosystem strength (47.5/100), contagion risk (45.0/100), historical resilience (30.0/100), fundamental quality (50.0/100), and rug pull risk (31.7/100). The strongest pillar is fundamental quality, while historical resilience scores lowest. The alert level is currently WARNING.
Will Fogo crash?
ZARQ's crash model estimates a 33% probability of a >50% drawdown for Fogo. The Distance-to-Default (NDD) is 2.9, which indicates moderate — some structural pressure. The structural integrity signal (Sig6) is N/A, and there are 0 structural weakness signals active. No structural weaknesses detected. These are model-based estimates updated daily, not guarantees of future performance.
Should I invest in Fogo?
Fogo holds a Ba2 rating from ZARQ. The crash probability is 33% and the Distance-to-Default is 2.9. These metrics suggest notable downside risk. However, ZARQ provides risk data, not investment advice. All crypto investments carry significant risk, including total loss of capital. Consider your risk tolerance, portfolio diversification, and investment horizon. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Fogo price prediction — what does the risk data say?
ZARQ does not make price predictions for Fogo. Instead, we provide quantitative risk metrics: the crash probability is 33% (probability of a >50% drawdown), the Distance-to-Default is 2.9, and the alert level is WARNING. No structural weakness signals are active. These risk signals are updated daily and can help inform — but not replace — your own analysis.
Is Fogo a scam?
ZARQ's analysis of Fogo shows a Ba2 rating. No structural collapse signals detected. ZARQ monitors Fogo daily across 7 quantitative risk signals including Distance-to-Default, crash probability, and structural integrity. While these signals can flag elevated risk, they cannot definitively determine if an asset is fraudulent. Always verify the project's team, code, and community independently.
What are the pros and cons of Fogo?
Based on ZARQ's quantitative analysis, Fogo (fogo) has the following strengths: Healthy distance from default (NDD: 2.9); No structural collapse signals detected. Key risks include: Elevated crash probability (33%); Active risk alert: WARNING. These assessments are based on daily-updated risk models and should be considered alongside your own research and risk tolerance.