Independent risk rating for Decentraland (mana). Last updated 2026-03-12.
Is Decentraland safe? ZARQ rates Decentraland (mana) Ba2 with a trust score of 43.0/100 and a 33% crash probability, based on 7 quantitative risk signals. Distance-to-Default: 2.6. Alert level: WARNING. 1 structural weakness signal active — elevated collapse risk. Vitality Score: 40/100 (Grade D), indicating crash resistance — backtested high-Vitality tokens lost 44% less during the 2025-2026 market crash (p < 0.001). Investors searching for Decentraland safety information should note this rating is updated daily.
Vitality Score Breakdown
The ZARQ Vitality Score measures ecosystem health and crash resistance across 5 dimensions. Decentraland scores 40/100 (Grade D), indicating crash resistance — backtested high-Vitality tokens lost 44% less during the 2025–2026 market crash (p < 0.001). Backtested ✓ Methodology
Ecosystem Gravity50
Multi-chain presence, protocol count, DeFi depth
Capital Commitment19
TVL stability, locked capital, market cap rank
Coordination Efficiency40
Audit coverage, category diversity, yield density
Stress Resilience51
Drawdown recovery, NDD stability, crash probability
Organic Momentum36
Rating trend, NDD trend, volume momentum
Data confidence: 100%
Pillar 1 — Ecosystem Strength
42.5
Market cap rank, volume stability, activity. Higher is safer.
Pillar 2 — Contagion Risk
53.3
BTC correlation, beta exposure, idiosyncratic risk. Lower correlation = more independent.
Pillar 3 — Historical Resilience
45.0
Max drawdown recovery, annualized volatility, tail risk ratio.
Pillar 4 — Fundamental Quality
36.2
Token age, price consistency, long-term trend strength.
Pillar 5 — Rug Pull Risk
31.7
Anomaly detection, extreme move frequency, dump pattern screening.
Distance-to-Default (NDD)
2.6
Structural distance from default threshold. Below 2.0 = elevated distress.
Structural Signal (Sig6)
4.6
Structural integrity score from the DtD model. Lower values indicate structural weakness.
Strengths
✓Healthy distance from default (NDD: 2.6)
✓Daily automated risk monitoring by ZARQ
Risks
✗Elevated crash probability (33%)
✗1 structural weakness signal active
✗Active risk alert: WARNING
Decentraland has an elevated crash probability of 33%, warranting extra caution. Minor structural stress has been detected (1 signal). The Distance-to-Default stands at 2.6, with an alert level of WARNING. Rating: Ba2. Vitality Score: 40/100 (Grade D).
Backtest resultsDisclaimer: This is quantitative risk analysis, not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and can lose value rapidly. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. ZARQ provides independent risk data — always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Decentraland safe to invest in?
Decentraland (mana) currently holds a Ba2 rating from ZARQ with a trust score of 43.0/100. This is a speculative-grade rating, indicating elevated risk. The current crash probability is 33%, and its Distance-to-Default stands at 2.6. Minor structural concerns are noted. Over the past 90 days, Decentraland has experienced a 41.7% maximum drawdown. The alert level is WARNING. As with all crypto investments, you should conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance.
What is Decentraland's risk rating?
ZARQ rates Decentraland at Ba2 on a Moody's-style scale (Aaa to C), where Baa3 and above is investment grade. The trust score is 43.0 out of 100, based on five quantitative pillars: ecosystem strength (42.5/100), contagion risk (53.3/100), historical resilience (45.0/100), fundamental quality (36.2/100), and rug pull risk (31.7/100). The strongest pillar is contagion risk, while rug pull risk scores lowest. The alert level is currently WARNING.
Will Decentraland crash?
ZARQ's crash model estimates a 33% probability of a >50% drawdown for Decentraland. The Distance-to-Default (NDD) is 2.6, which indicates moderate — some structural pressure. The structural integrity signal (Sig6) is 4.6, and there is 1 structural weakness signal active. Minor structural concerns are noted. These are model-based estimates updated daily, not guarantees of future performance.
Should I invest in Decentraland?
Decentraland holds a Ba2 rating from ZARQ. The crash probability is 33% and the Distance-to-Default is 2.6. These metrics suggest notable downside risk. However, ZARQ provides risk data, not investment advice. All crypto investments carry significant risk, including total loss of capital. Consider your risk tolerance, portfolio diversification, and investment horizon. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Decentraland price prediction — what does the risk data say?
ZARQ does not make price predictions for Decentraland. Instead, we provide quantitative risk metrics: the crash probability is 33% (probability of a >50% drawdown), the Distance-to-Default is 2.6, and the alert level is WARNING. There are 1 structural weakness signals active. These risk signals are updated daily and can help inform — but not replace — your own analysis.
Is Decentraland a scam?
ZARQ's analysis of Decentraland shows a Ba2 rating. Minor structural stress detected (1 signal). ZARQ monitors Decentraland daily across 7 quantitative risk signals including Distance-to-Default, crash probability, and structural integrity. While these signals can flag elevated risk, they cannot definitively determine if an asset is fraudulent. Always verify the project's team, code, and community independently.
What are the pros and cons of Decentraland?
Based on ZARQ's quantitative analysis, Decentraland (mana) has the following strengths: Healthy distance from default (NDD: 2.6); Daily automated risk monitoring by ZARQ. Key risks include: Elevated crash probability (33%); 1 structural weakness signal active; Active risk alert: WARNING. These assessments are based on daily-updated risk models and should be considered alongside your own research and risk tolerance.