The Prediction Ledger
Every risk call ZARQ has made, in the order it made them — hash-chained so each entry is provably prior to what happened next. A judgment with a receipt.
Calls made in real time
Alerts ZARQ raised while operating — each timestamped and chained when it fired, not reconstructed after the fact. The four Critical downgrades are shown with the drawdown that followed.
Vol-adjusted: a −50% fall on a wild microcap is not the same call as −50% on a major. Each outcome is shown both raw and normalized by the asset's volatility at alert time (σ = drawdown ÷ the asset's expected move over the window). A larger negative σ is a more surprising fall — a stronger call. We show both; we don't grade ourselves on the flattering number.
Matched baseline (pre-registered method, basket_v1): the real skill question is whether a flag beat what similar coins did anyway. For each alert we build a control basket of unflagged coins in the same marketcap band whose volatility is within a band around the alert coin's, widened stepwise (±10→±50%) until at least 10 peers. If ±50% still yields fewer than 10, we report "insufficient control group" and no median — never a thin basket dressed as a result. Each alert publishes its basket size, the widening applied, and the excess versus the basket median. No silent widening.
| # | Date flagged | Asset | Transition | NDD | P3 | Outcome | Vol-adj | vs basket | Chain hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 2026-07-10 | NIGHT | WATCH → WARNING | 2.9 | 25.0 | -7.0% | -0.66σ | -3% | e9ea3be2cd…a02b27 |
| 50 | 2026-06-20 | KITE | SAFE → WATCH | 2.5 | 53.8 | -38.5% | -1.15σ | -23% | 7083939295…ea8a5d |
| 49 | 2026-06-05 | KITE | SAFE → WATCH | 3.0 | 53.8 | -40.8% | -0.94σ | -29% | 38c5dd5d0c…61d199 |
| 48 | 2026-06-02 | BORG | SAFE → WATCH | 3.3 | 60.0 | -7.8% | -0.51σ | +9% | 4c2d93284c…79285e |
| 47 | 2026-06-01 | TON | WATCH → WARNING | 2.9 | 55.0 | -18.3% | -0.47σ | +2% | fb19fa0cbb…352190 |
| 46 | 2026-06-01 | XTZ | WATCH → WARNING | 2.8 | 50.0 | -35.7% | -1.92σ | -9% | 055cb2568b…f95bc0 |
| 45 | 2026-06-01 | LION | WARNING → CRITICAL | 3.4 | 30.0 | -20.3% | -0.77σ | +0% | 960019da3e…b04cf4 |
| 44 | 2026-06-01 | ATOM | WATCH → WARNING | 3.0 | 55.0 | -22.1% | -1.16σ | -2% | 5c26f747ac…a5111a |
| 43 | 2026-06-01 | CVX | WATCH → WARNING | 2.5 | 45.0 | -30.4% | -1.11σ | -5% | bf335231fb…6442c9 |
| 42 | 2026-06-01 | BGB | WATCH → WARNING | 3.5 | 55.0 | -23.8% | -1.95σ | -9% | e49aaa4f94…3313f0 |
| 41 | 2026-06-01 | ARB | WATCH → WARNING | 2.7 | 40.0 | -28.6% | -1.20σ | -9% | 67f924f160…225d37 |
| 40 | 2026-05-29 | KITE | WATCH → WARNING | 2.9 | 53.8 | -48.2% | -1.04σ | -23% | 1e0016d611…f71fa5 |
| 39 | 2026-05-03 | ZBCN | WARNING → CRITICAL | 3.5 | 35.0 | -32.9% | -0.55σ | +6% | c5e7057314…4a71b8 |
| 38 | 2026-05-03 | WLFI | WATCH → WARNING | 2.9 | 50.0 | -0.4% | -0.01σ | +22% | d96d17ae87…553a71 |
| 37 | 2026-05-03 | XRP | WATCH → WARNING | 3.0 | 45.0 | -25.4% | -0.72σ | insuf. | c4fb22f6d8…2ca822 |
| 36 | 2026-05-03 | REAL | WATCH → WARNING | 3.2 | 60.0 | -34.1% | -1.16σ | -4% | 011a3fc325…dd16d0 |
| 35 | 2026-05-03 | NEXO | SAFE → WATCH | 3.2 | 60.0 | -20.7% | -0.74σ | -0% | 927c69d4c0…a78835 |
| 34 | 2026-05-03 | KITE | WATCH → WARNING | 2.5 | 53.8 | -32.4% | -0.45σ | +8% | 7594d0f907…4dac96 |
| 33 | 2026-05-03 | GNO | WATCH → WARNING | 3.1 | 55.0 | -30.9% | -0.92σ | -2% | a97fb16683…1a1259 |
| 32 | 2026-05-03 | ETH | WATCH → WARNING | 3.1 | 45.0 | -32.2% | -0.91σ | insuf. | b744a7a14d…b3b4ba |
| 31 | 2026-05-03 | XEC | WATCH → WARNING | 3.2 | 55.0 | -31.2% | -1.02σ | -2% | e301a2228f…5c497e |
| 30 | 2026-05-03 | COW | WATCH → WARNING | 3.1 | 50.0 | -25.6% | -0.64σ | +2% | b308a450db…8975c2 |
| 29 | 2026-05-03 | CHZ | WATCH → WARNING | 3.6 | 40.0 | -59.4% | -1.29σ | -30% | 45b12b6ec2…58b0a2 |
| 28 | 2026-05-03 | BTT | SAFE → WATCH | 3.4 | 60.0 | -18.7% | -0.96σ | insuf. | 5ccb0bd87b…cd436e |
| 27 | 2026-05-03 | BTC | WATCH → WARNING | 3.1 | 60.0 | -24.0% | -0.91σ | insuf. | 2e77d4e35b…ce0945 |
| 26 | 2026-05-03 | BNB | WATCH → WARNING | 3.1 | 60.0 | -10.6% | -0.41σ | insuf. | ea3a70ec7b…ad1aff |
| 25 | 2026-04-01 | WFI | SAFE → WATCH | 3.3 | 60.0 | -9.9% | -0.31σ | +7% | 2016cb851c…2a0f15 |
| 24 | 2026-04-01 | BMX | SAFE → WATCH | 3.5 | 60.0 | -7.3% | -0.23σ | +5% | 1c4c9b53d3…7d6a19 |
| 23 | 2026-03-30 | KITE | SAFE → WATCH | 2.5 | 53.8 | -36.2% | -0.49σ | -6% | d3ef9b7d1b…118895 |
| 22 | 2026-03-19 | KITE | SAFE → WATCH | 2.8 | 53.8 | -52.6% | -0.72σ | -23% | 0116c1992d…99630b |
| 21 | 2026-03-15 | ZBCN | WATCH → WARNING | 2.9 | 35.0 | 0.0% | +0.00σ | +24% | cf9209cba6…8aae6a |
| 20 | 2026-03-15 | WBT | SAFE → WATCH | 3.7 | 75.0 | -19.3% | -0.80σ | insuf. | 545d06dc5a…07c4a0 |
| 19 | 2026-03-15 | WEMIX | SAFE → WATCH | 3.6 | 60.0 | -20.0% | -0.54σ | +5% | fc4794dc7d…726674 |
| 18 | 2026-03-15 | XRP | WATCH → WARNING | 2.8 | 45.0 | -27.1% | -0.58σ | insuf. | 05fb1c1e64…ea296c |
| 17 | 2026-03-15 | QRL | WARNING → CRITICAL | 2.5 | 35.0 | -46.8% | -0.66σ | -26% | 3427d6f4df…cba676 |
| 16 | 2026-03-15 | POWER | WARNING → CRITICAL | 3.3 | 35.0 | -52.3% | -0.14σ | insuf. | 2bed8eaac3…407032 |
| 15 | 2026-03-15 | PAXG | SAFE → WATCH | 3.8 | 73.8 | -21.0% | -0.94σ | insuf. | 52eef2620f…0e8e14 |
| 14 | 2026-03-15 | M | SAFE → WATCH | 3.7 | 40.0 | -60.6% | -0.83σ | -29% | 2b9076bdb4…eaeb34 |
| 13 | 2026-03-15 | BARD | WATCH → WARNING | 3.7 | 65.0 | -88.8% | -1.54σ | -63% | 683de2fc24…c0a106 |
| 12 | 2026-03-15 | LION | WATCH → WARNING | 3.0 | 30.0 | -59.2% | -0.62σ | -21% | 96ba03ffa5…c595ea |
| 11 | 2026-03-15 | JST | SAFE → WATCH | 4.1 | 73.8 | 0.0% | +0.00σ | +26% | 065b92aa0b…e1282c |
| 10 | 2026-03-15 | ICP | WATCH → WARNING | 3.1 | 35.0 | -20.0% | -0.34σ | +4% | a40b9d39a7…2ce0f1 |
| 9 | 2026-03-15 | IMX | WATCH → WARNING | 2.9 | 35.0 | -27.0% | -0.49σ | -1% | 322bf0b5f4…eceb39 |
| 8 | 2026-03-15 | GNO | WATCH → WARNING | 3.3 | 55.0 | -27.4% | -0.69σ | -1% | 29d25b5a8f…1450a3 |
| 7 | 2026-03-15 | FLOKI | WATCH → WARNING | 2.7 | 35.0 | -27.6% | -0.51σ | -1% | cf8f636c6e…b9efe6 |
| 6 | 2026-03-15 | ETH | WATCH → WARNING | 2.8 | 45.0 | -25.6% | -0.61σ | insuf. | 19c2443f27…075c2e |
| 5 | 2026-03-15 | BTSE | SAFE → WATCH | 3.9 | 73.8 | -44.7% | -1.34σ | -26% | 6de77aa978…1494e7 |
| 4 | 2026-03-15 | BONK | WATCH → WARNING | 2.8 | 35.0 | -38.8% | -0.64σ | -11% | ed956d16c6…99030b |
| 3 | 2026-03-15 | BCH | WATCH → WARNING | 2.6 | 50.0 | -59.1% | -1.36σ | insuf. | 0491253578…354146 |
| 2 | 2026-03-15 | BTC | WATCH → WARNING | 3.1 | 60.0 | -18.5% | -0.59σ | insuf. | 412c7517ad…7cd8b9 |
| 1 | 2026-03-15 | BDX | SAFE → WATCH | 3.8 | 65.0 | -78.8% | -3.30σ | insuf. | fe82805aec…7242ee |
Verify the chain yourself
The ledger is append-only and self-verifying. Anyone can recompute it end to end and confirm no entry was altered or back-dated.
chain_hash = sha256(prev_hash + content + timestamp), starting from genesis 00…00.